Liquefied Natural gas, a Value Chain with a Future
In the decades ahead, natural gas will play an increasingly important role in meeting the world’s energy needs. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be a key factor in this "coming of age," particularly in response to Asian and European demand.
Natural gas, the second-leading fossil fuel in the energy mix by 2035
With demand rising at an average rate of about 3% per year over the past thirty years, natural gas has posted more dynamic gains than any other fossil fuel. The future looks bright as well: in 2010, natural gas ranked third in the global energy mix (source: TOTAL), accounting for 22% of aggregate energy supply but trailing both oil (32%) and coal (27%). As such, there is substantial scope for further growth.
Total believes that the growing role of natural gas will be a fundamental component of trends in the energy mix. In fact, the Group’s forward-looking scenarios foresee even stronger growth in gas demand than is currently projected by the key energy forecasting indicators. According to Group estimates, the rate of growth in gas will outstrip that of both crude oil and coal. Natural gas should rise to the No. 2 rank among fossil energies, pushing its share of the energy mix ahead of coal’s (25%) by 2035.
Sustained Growth in Liquefied Latural Gas
Over the past two decades, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as an increasingly core feature of the global gas balance, with growth of about 7% per year since 2000. Its contribution to meeting demand for gas has risen steadily to reach nearly 10% of aggregate gas supply in 2012. This represents production of 240 million tonnes (Mt) (source: CERA).
As the distances between major gas-producing and consuming regions increase, this boom is set to continuein a very significant manner. By 2020, output is forecast to reach 373 Mt, and LNG should account for 13% of global gas supply.
Demand Pulled Mainly by Asia
North America, Europe and Asia consumed 61% of the 3,350 billion cubic metres (Gm3) of gas produced in 2012 (source: CEDIGAZ). North America remains by far the leading gas market, with demand of 880 Gm3, ahead of Asia (640 Gm3), CIS (615 Gm3), and Europe (520 Gm3). When it comes to demand for LNG, Asia and Europe are the major import regions.
Sharp growth in demand for LNG will create a need for many new projects.
For example, Asia in 2012 absorbed 71%– or more than 167 Mt – of worldwide LNG output (source: GIIGNL). In areas where there is no domestic production or pipeline network to import gas, LNG is the sole source of supply. This is the case for Japan (the world’s leading importer with 87.4 Mt in 2012), South Korea (36.2 Mt) and Taiwan (12.8 Mt). By 2020, Asia will be by far the leading consumer of LNG. Total estimates that Asian imports of LNG will be on the order of 268 Mt and cover 43% of Asia’s gas requirements. China and India are expected to contribute significantly to this growth, because domestic production and piped imports will not suffice to keep step with skyrocketing local demand.
Additional Growth Through Markets in Europe
In 2012, LNG met 12% of Europe’s gas requirements, representing an import volume of 47 Mt (source: GIIGNL). Spain is the largest European market for LNG (15.4 Mt), followed by United Kingdom (10.3 Mt), France (7.2 Mt), Turkey (5.7 Mt) and Italy (3.9 Mt)(source: CERA). An increase in gas imported by pipeline from Russia and the Middle East will not suffice to offset declining in North Sea gas production, so the share of LNG in the European gas mix is destined to rise. By 2020, Total estimates that LNG will be meeting 14% of demand, with an import volume on the order of 60 Mt.
Limited LNG Imports in North America
In contrast, LNG played only a marginal role in the gas balance of the North American market in 2012. The import volume of 18.6 Mt of LNG accounted for less than 2% of the aggregate gas demand of this huge market (source: CEDIGAZ and GIIGNL).
The recent advent of large-scale shale gas production has offset the sharp decline in conventional gas output, sharply curbing import requirements. This scenario is likely to remain unchanged ten years from now: LNG imports are estimated at a mere 5 Mt.
Focus – Emerging markets
A number of countries have recently (or soon will) join the "international club" of LNG import nations:
in South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Cuba;
in the Middle East: Dubai and Kuwait;
in Asia: Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines.
For some these countries, which have neither domestic production nor a land-based pipeline system for imports, LNG offers a rapid source of imported gas, now a vital component of their energy mix. For others, it is a flexible solution for periodic short-term demand peaks.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий